AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures finished with fractional to 1 cent losses on Turnaround Tuesday. A large private export sale of 256,096 MT of 17/18 US corn to unknown destinations was reported by the USDA this morning through their daily system. Analysts with Informa Economics expect US producers to plant 89.179 million acres of corn in 2018. That is nearly 496,000 acres lower than their December estimate and would be 1.24% below 2017. China’s corn imports during December totaled 450,000 MT, well above the previous year. Total imports of corn in 2017 totaled 2.83 MMT, down 10.73% from 2016. They are still working aggressively to shrink large domestic stockpiles.

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.51 1/4, down 3/4 cent,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.59 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.68, down 1 cent

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.75 3/4, down 1 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures ended the Tuesday session with 1 to 2 1/4 cent gains. Meal futures were up $1/ton, with nearby soy oil up 36 points. Consultant Informa is projecting 2018 US soybean plantings of 91.197 million acres. That is a 190,000 acre drop from the previous projection in December and 1.2% larger than 2017 acres. According to government data, exports of soybeans in Brazil during January have totaled 1.043 MMT as of January 19. That has already surpassed January totals as far back as 2012 when the whole month showed 1.012 MMT in exports.

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.86 1/4, up 2 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $9.97 3/4, up 2 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.07 3/4, up 2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $10.05 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal closed at $339.60, up $1.00,

Mar 18 Soybean Oil closed at $32.52, up $0.36

Wheat

Wheat futures settled the day 3 to 5 1/4 cents lower in most CBT and KC contracts. MPLS was down 1 to 2 1/2 cents in most front months. Temperatures over the Plains are expected to pick up over the next week, putting less stress from cold temps on the HRW crop. Moisture from recent snows is also seen as beneficial although uncertainty about previous winterkill remains. Japan is seeking 84,577 MT of wheat from the US and Australia, with 60,747 MT US specific. Results are expected on Thursday. China sold 596,594 MT of wheat at an auction of state reserves on Tuesday, which was 28.9% of the total offered. The remaining 11 countries of the Trans Pacific Partnership, including Australia and Canada, have agreed to sign the agreement in March.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.21 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.23 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.04 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures closed Tuesday with gains of 50 to 82.5 cents in most contracts, as nearby Feb was up $1.175. Feeder cattle futures, helped by lower corn, were $1.15 to $1.90 higher, with soon to expire Jan up 72.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was up 34 cents on January 22 at $147.88. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.78 at $206.85, with Select boxes 64 cents higher at $200.16. Estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter was at 199,000 head through Tuesday. That is down 37,000 from last week and 27,000 from the same week last year because of Monday’s blizzard in NE/IA/MN. Ahead of Friday’s COF report, analysts are expecting to see placed cattle during December down 3.1% from a year ago, with larger placement numbers in previous months leaving fewer open pens.

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $124.725, up $1.175,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $124.800, up $0.825,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $116.300, up $0.750,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.625, up $0.725

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.975, up $1.150

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.725, up $1.250

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures showed mixed trade on Tuesday, with nearby Feb up 45 cents and most back months 17.5 to 62.5 cents lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 27 cents on January 19 at $73.40. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 86 cents higher at $83.03 in the Tuesday afternoon report. The belly was the only primal reported lower, down $4.34. The national base hog weighted average price was down 25 cents to $69.41. The USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter at 851,000 through Tuesday, which is 1,000 larger than last week, but 15,000 head fewer than this week last year. The Cold Storage report release will be delayed until Wednesday, due to Monday’s government shutdown.

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $72.250, up $0.450,

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $74.650, down $0.475

May 18 Hogs closed at $79.400, down $0.250

Cotton

Cotton futures saw sharp losses of 34 to 115 points on Tuesday, on a little bit of profit taking. This morning’s USDA Cotton Ginnings report showed 17.43 million RB had been ginned as of January 15. That was a 1.277 million RB jump since Jan 1, and is 17% larger than this time last year. Online cash sales on the Seam totaled 19,538 bales on Monday, with prices down 36 points, averaging 72.32 cents/lb. The Cotlook A Index for January 22 was up 75 points from the previous day at 94.10 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 82.260, down 115 points,

May 18 Cotton closed at 82.740, down 104 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 83.190, down 100 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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